Economic Logic Market Timing Indicators inproved slightly, from Bearish to Moderately Bearish

Economic  Logic 
  Stock  Market 
Timing  Indicators,

 as of September 24, 2021, with the S&P 500 at 4.455.5

Indicator  Total  

-2.0 = Moderately Bearish

 ( Range is -7 to +7 ) 

( Was -3.0  Bearish on August 30, 2021, with the S&P 500 at 4,528.8 )

The  Seven  Indicators:

    Short  term  indicator                              

(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio

---   Moderately Bullish at 48.8% bullish,

for the 9/22/21 four-week average 

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2021/09/aaii-sentiment-improved-to-moderately.html

    Medium  term  indicators 

(2) Election  Year  Cycle

 --- Neutral, 

until the end of 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones4j.html

  

(3) Seasonality  Cycle

--- Bearish, 

from May 2021 through October 2021,

 then bullish for six months

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_sp.html

 (4) Corporate  Insider  Trading

--- Moderately Bearish,

Large buys increased in September

after very few during the summer,

but there are still lots of large sales

(see prior post for list of Large Buys)

 

(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy

 --- Bullish,  after a huge expansion of Federal Reserve Credit

and the M2 money supply

    Long  term  indicators

(6) S&P500  Price to Sales Ratio

--- Bearish  at 3.20x 

on September 24, 2021

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

(P/S Ratio updated after every trading day)

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

 --- Bearish at 1.7% 

Assuming that dividends equal 50% 

of the latest four quarters

of S&P500 "as reported" earnings

($158.78 for the year ending 6/30/21)

 

 

For  the  Indicator  Total:

+3  to  +7         = Bullish

+1.5  to + 2.5   = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1          =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5     = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7           = Bearish

 

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish                      = +1 point

Moderately Bullish  = +0.5 points

Neutral                      = 0 points

Moderately Bearish  = -0.5 points

Bearish                      = -1 point