This is a highly edited version.
I favor items with numerical data.
All predictions are deleted,
because they are rarely correct.
All central bank items are deleted,
because they usually reveal nothing.
Ye Editor
Doug Noland's Commentary:
Saturday, December 18, 2021
December 16 – Financial Times:
“The Bank of England has raised interest rates
from 0.1% to 0.25% in its first increase
in more than three years ...
Corona Virus Watch
December 17 – UK Guardian:
“The UK reported 93,045 new Covid cases today, breaking the daily record for the third consecutive day. It comes after yesterday there were 88,376 new cases reported and 78,610 new cases the day before, both breaking all previous pandemic records.”
Let’s assume that Omicron symptoms are less severe than Delta’s. But it’s transmissibility that today poses major global risks. ... The Omicron variant has been shown to evade immunity, both from vaccines and previous infections.
A previous Covid-19 recovery provides little shield against infection with the omicron variant, a research team from Imperial College London showed... probably offers only 19% protection against omicron, the study showed Dec. 17.
New York state reported 21,027 new COVID cases Friday…, surpassing the previous record of 19,942 set in January. Of the roughly 263,500 people tested, 7.98% were positive for the virus.
Let’s assume that Omicron symptoms are less severe and lethal. ... Even if governments are determined to refrain from painful lockdowns, a massive wave of infections would create challenges for many businesses to continue with normal operations. I worry about already stretched supply chains.
December 12 – Reuters:
“The United States on Sunday reached 800,000
coronavirus-related deaths, according to a Reuters tally
( about 375, 000 COVID deaths in 2020, per CDC,
with no vaccines, and 425,000 so far in 2021,
with vaccines. Great job vaccines ! Ye Editor )
Inflation Watch:
December 14 – CNBC:
“The producer price index for final demand increased 9.6% over the previous 12 months after rising another 0.8% in November. Economists had been looking for an annual gain of 9.2%... Excluding food, energy and trade services prices rose 0.7% for the month, putting core PPI at 6.9%, also the largest gain on record.”
December 13 – Financial Times:
“The cost of flying cargo around the world has reached record levels as companies attempt to meet surging demand in the run-up to Christmas. ... Cargo prices on routes from Shanghai to North America reached $14 per kilogramme for the first time last week, up from $8 at the end of August and above the previous record of $12 achieved when the pandemic first hit supply chains in early 2020.”
December 13 – Wall Street Journal:
“Lithium prices are rising at their fastest pace in years, setting off a race to secure supplies and fueling worries about long-term shortages of a vital ingredient in the rechargeable batteries that power everything from electric vehicles to smartphones. An index of lithium prices… doubled between May and November and is up some 240% for the year.”
U.S. Bubble Watch:
December 15 – Bloomberg:
“U.S. retail sales rose by less than forecast in November, suggesting that consumers are tempering purchases against a backdrop of the fastest inflation in decades. The value of overall retail purchases increased 0.3%, the smallest advance in four months after a revised 1.8% gain in October… The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.”
December 16 – Bloomberg:
“U.S. home construction residential starts rose 11.8% last month to a 1.68 million annualized rate … Applications to build, a proxy for future construction, climbed to an annualized 1.71 million units in November.”
China Watch:
December 14 – Bloomberg:
“China’s property industry slump persisted in November as home prices fell for a third month and sales dropped, hurting growth in the world’s second-largest economy. New-home prices in 70 cities… declined 0.33% last month from October when they fell 0.25%... Home sales slid 17% from a year earlier, improving slightly from a 24% decrease in October… Sentiment in China’s home market has been dented by a cash crisis among property developers ...
Emerging Markets Watch:
December 16 – Wall Street Journal:
“Turkey’s central bank bowed to political pressure to slash interest rates, defying soaring inflation and deepening a currency crisis that has dogged the economy. The central bank lowered its benchmark rate to 14% from 15% on Thursday, its fourth-consecutive rate cut since September. Previous rate cuts demanded by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan triggered a collapse in the Turkish lira. The currency has lost 40% of its value against the dollar since September…”
December 16 – Bloomberg:
“Turkey’s minimum wage will rise 50% in 2022 to help offset living costs that have surged as the central bank unleashed a series of lira-weakening interest-rate cuts to support President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s push to rewire the economy.”
December 11 – Wall Street Journal:
“more economists expect Brazil to remain stuck in recession during 2022 as it battles one of the world’s highest annual inflation rates of 10.7%. ‘Brazil really stands out—its inflation rate has risen much faster than almost any other emerging economy, and you can really see that hitting consumers,’ said William Jackson, chief emerging-markets economist at… Capital Economics.”
Europe Watch:
December 13 – Reuters:
“German wholesale prices rose by 16.6% on the year in November…, recording their biggest annual rise since data collection for the measure began in 1962 and suggesting higher consumer prices may follow. The price measure is widely considered an indicator of future inflationary tendencies as wholesale trade is the hinge between manufacturers and end-customers.”
December 15 – Reuters:
“British inflation surged to its highest in more than 10 years in November, jumping to 5.1%... Price pressure from a broad range of consumer goods and services - but especially petrol, clothing and footwear - lay behind the increase in inflation to its highest since September 2011… The reading exceeded all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists, which had pointed to a rise of 4.7% from October's 4.2%.”
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