Economic Logic Stock Market Timing Indicators declined to Moderately Bearish, from Neutral last month

Economic  Logic 
  Stock  Market 
Timing  Indicators

   on February 9, 2022, 

with the S&P500 at 4,521.54

 

Indicator  Total

-2  Moderately Bearish

 ( Range is -7 to +7 ) 

 

 

 

The  Seven  Indicators:

    Short  term  indicator                              

(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio

---   Bullish at 37.6% bullish,

for the 2/9/22 four-week average 

 

    Medium  term  indicators 

(2) Election  Year  Cycle

 --- Neutral, 

until the end of 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones4j.html

  

(3) Seasonality  Cycle

--- Bullish, 

from November 2021 through May 2022,

 then bullish for six months

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_sp.html

 (4) Corporate  Insider  Trading

--- Bearish

  (see next post)

 

(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy

 --- Bearish, after many years of a huge expansion  

of Federal Reserve Credit, and the resulting high inflation,

the uptrend has ended, and this indicator is now bearish,

based on Fed talk (bearish) and actions (moderately bearish)

    Long  term  indicators

(6) S&P500  Price to Sales Ratio

--- Bearish  at 2.7x 

on February 9, 2022

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

(P/S Ratio updated after every trading day)

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

 --- Bearish at 2.1% 

Assuming that dividends equal 50% 

of the latest four quarters

of S&P500 "as reported" earnings

($194 for the year 2021 (preliminary)

 

 

For  the  Indicator  Total:

+3  to  +7         = Bullish

+1.5  to + 2.5   = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1          =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5     = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7           = Bearish

 

 

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish                      = +1 point

Moderately Bullish  = +0.5 points

Neutral                      = 0 points

Moderately Bearish  = -0.5 points

Bearish                      = -1 point