Friday, February 4, 2022

Labor Department claims +1,629,000 new jobs in past three months after "adjustments" -- raw data reflect -1,646,000 lost jobs -- I do not believe these adjusted numbers for one minute

I've been watching employment data since the 1970s. This week's data are so unusual I do not believe them for one minute.
 

+1,176,000 new payroll jobs (Establishment Survey)
were announced today, consisting of:

     +467,000 new jobs in  January 2022 (preliminary data)
     +311,000 more jobs for first December 2021 revision 
     +398.000 more jobs for second November 2021 revision
 +1,176,000 new jobs reported including November and December revisions
 
 
Large downward revisions were made in March through July 2021 that offset most of the upwards revisions in other months, especially in November and December 2021. Total 2021 payroll employment for 2021 was increased by about +217,000 jobs:
 

New Payroll Jobs raw data in the past three months (excluding seasonal adjustments), and then I remove the Net Birth and Death of Businesses Model adjustment:
November +900,000 jobs, less 17,000 Birth Death = +883,000
December +139,000 jobs, plus 42,000 Birth Death = +181,000
January -2,824,000 jobs, plus 114,000 Birth Death = -2,710,000
Total raw data: -1,646,000 lost jobs
 
 
Payroll Raw Data vs. Payroll Adjusted Data 
for the past three months:
Raw data:  -1,646,000 lost jobs in 3 months 
After adjustments: +1,629,000 new jobs in 3 months
( +647,000 Nov. + 510,000 Dec. + 467,000 Jan. = +1,629,000 ) 
 


My comparison of several data sources 
for the past two months, 
from November 2021 through January 2022
reflect unusually large differences:
ADP Private Sector Employed up +415,000 people
Establishment Survey Employed up +977,000 people
Household Survey Employed up +1,850,000 people


These are very unusual differences.
 
 
US Household Survey:
Total Employed People:
Total Unemployed People:
Labor Force Participation Percentage:
ADP Survey:
Private Sector Employment:
US Establishment Survey:
Total Payroll Jobs:

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