Economic Logic
Stock Market
Timing Indicators
Stock Market
Timing Indicators
on March 10, 2022,
with the S&P500 at 4,259.49
Indicator Total
-1 Neutral
( Range is -7 to +7 )
( Was -2 Moderately Bearish
on February 8, 2022
with the S&P500 at 4,521.54
The Seven Indicators:
Short term indicator
(1) AAII Sentiment Ratio
--- Bullish at 34.5% bullish,
for the 3/9/22 four-week average
Medium term indicators
(2) Election Year Cycle
--- Neutral,
until the end of 2022
(3) Seasonality Cycle
--- Bullish,
from November 2021 through May 2022,
then bullish for six months
--- Neutral, a big improvement from Bearish last month
(see next post)
(5) Federal Reserve Policy
--- Bearish, after many years of a huge expansion
of Federal Reserve Credit, and the resulting high inflation,
the uptrend has ended, and this indicator is now bearish,
based on Fed talk (bearish) and actions (moderately bearish)
Long term indicators
(6) S&P500 Price to Sales Ratio
--- Bearish at 2.82x
on March 10, 2022
(P/S Ratio updated after every trading day)
(7) S&P500 Dividend Yield
--- Bearish at 2.2%
Assuming that dividends equal 50%
of the latest four quarters
of S&P500 "as reported" earnings
($195.22 for the year 2021 (preliminary)
For the Indicator Total:
+3 to +7 = Bullish
+1.5 to + 2.5 = Moderately Bullish
-1 to +1 = Neutral
-1.5 to -2.5 = Moderately Bearish
-3 to -7 = Bearish
For an individual indicator:
Bullish = +1 point
Moderately Bullish = +0.5 points
Neutral = 0 points
Moderately Bearish = -0.5 points
Bearish = -1 point
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