Atlanta Fed GDP Now predicting another GDP decline in 2Q 2022 = recession

 Please note that this indicator tends to be too bullish until the quarter ends. The quarter ended yesterday.

At this point the indicator is fairly accurate.

For actual government GDP numbers, there is a strong tendency for them to be too bullish near the start of a recession, meaning later revisions tend to be negative. It actually takes one year of adjustments before we get a reliable GDP number. I've been following GDP data since the 1970s, and GDPNow since 2012.

"Since we started tracking GDP growth with versions of this model in 2011, the average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts is 0.84 percentage points. The root-mean-squared error of the forecasts is 1.25 percentage points. These accuracy measures cover initial estimates for 2011:Q3–2022:Q1."

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when did the atlanta fed start using GDP Now? - Google Search