Following the very mixed message from last Friday's jobs data, this morning's initial claims data was definitelky worse - with 244k Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. That is the highest since November 2021...


 

There was a big jump in unadjusted continuing claims across all programs...

The unexpectedly large rise in claims was driven a surge in New York (vaccine mandate related?)

This ongoing surge in jobless claims fits much more with the narrative being told by ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys...