June employment data: Establishment Survey looks good, but Household Survey looks bad -- the two surveys have a huge gap since March 2022

Article expanded st 4pm Friday:

Mixed June 2022 employment data release:

The establishment survey says +372,000 new jobs, seasonally adjusted. That number says no recession.
The raw numbers before adjustments shown in the tables below say the same thing. 

There will be two revisions in the next two months.

The Household Survey says -315,000 fewer jobs, 
and has been weak for three months. 

That says recession.

There are no revisions of the Household numbers.

I favor the Household Survey, which does not require future revisions, but is much more volatile due to a much smaller sample. That's why a few months of Houshold Survey data, averaged, are much better than one month, to reduce volatility. The last three months look bad and do suggest we are in at least a mild recession. A mild recession in the first half of 2022 is also my opinion. But ery few analysts would agree, when considering the Establishment (Payroll) numbers that are often used to define the beginning and end months of a recession by the NBER. 

My experience when writing the newsletter ECONOMIC LOGIC for 43 years, from 1977 to early 2020, is that when these two Surveys are very different, as they were for the past three months, the Household Survey is usually right. And after a year of revisions, the Establishment Survey will become less Bullish than the initial releases for April 2022 through June 2022. But "usually" does not mean always. 

No conclusion is possible when considering all these data !

SOURCE OF DATA BELOW:

Employment and Earnings Table B-1b (bls.gov)

The adjusted employment numbers from the Establishment (Payroll) Survey are reported almost everywhere, along with the unemployment rate from the Household Survey. 

The Establishment Survey raw data below are before seasonal adjustments.

June 2022 was up +944,000 versus May 2022, 
compared with +1,189,000 in June 2021 vs. May 2021.

That size increase is not consistent with a recession.

Private sector jobs were up 1,327,000 in June 2022

2022 data (not seasonally adjusted):

Industry	2017 NAICS code	Not seasonally adjusted						Change from: May2022 - June2022(P)
		June 2021	Feb. 2022	Mar. 2022	Apr. 2022	May 2022(P)	June 2022(P)
Total nonfarm		146,493	149,143	149,905	150,957	151,748	152,692	944
Total private		124,593	126,784	127,478	128,462	129,292	130,619	1,327

2021 historical data (not seasonally adjusted):

SOURCE:

CES Net Birth-Death Model (bls.gov)

2021 Total nonfarm over-the-month change, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Total nonfarm over-the-month change				1,050	946	1,189	-41	495	704	1,659	900	142