October 2022 Employment -- Unprecedented Gap Between the Two Employment Surveys

 January 2022 through October 2022 Total Employment Increase
Household Survey  +!,434,000 new jobs
Payroll Survey       + 3,564,000 new jobs

In my 47 years of following employment data, I do not recall a larger gap between these two surveys. The Household Survey counts people with jobs, including the self employed. The Payroll Survey counts the number of jobs, excluding the self employed, so a person with two part-time jobs will get counted as two jobs, not one. I advise ignoring the Payroll Survey (aka Establishment Survey) this year.

                              October 2022      October 2021

Raw payroll survey data   +1,172,000      +1,659.000  (2022 down -29%)

Data reported to the public  +261.000        +428,000

Raw data % of reported data   22.3%              25.8%

Adjustments in October 2022 were a larger percentage of the raw data than in October 2021, which made the reported October 2022 numbers look worse.

Labor Force Participation Rate still below the pre-Covid level:

Data Sources:

CES Net Birth-Death Model (bls.gov)

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data (bls.gov)

Additional reading and source of the two charts above:

Something Has Snapped: Unexplained 2.3 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report | ZeroHedge