2Q 2018 Real GDP analysis - 2.7% average growth for Trump, so far.

An average growth rate 
for Trump's first six quarters,
( from Obama's last quarter 
of 4Q 2016, through 2Q 2018 )
is much more useful
than extrapolating 
2Q 2018 good news 
well into the future,
as Trump and his fans
will do:


The annual 
Real GDP 
growth rate 
for President Trump's
first six quarters,
   is 2.7%, 
better than Obama's 2.2% average
from mid-2009 through 2016,
but that's not saying much !

2.7% average growth
is not an 'economic boom'    
as Trump fans are claiming.

Q2 2018 = $18,507,000,000 annual rate
Q4 2016 = $17,784,000,000 annual rate


My quick analysis 
of 2Q 2018:

Real final sales 
increased
at a huge +5.1% 
annual rate
which means 
that inventories
unexpectently declined 
at a 1.0% annual rate
so swelling inventories
are not making the 
Real GDP number 
look better!

5.1% - 1.0% = 4.1% 
( 4.1% was the headline 
Real GDP growth number )



  In the details:
Consumer spending growth
accounted for 2.69 points 
of the 4.1% annual growth rate,
which is very impressive,
until you look at 1Q 2018,
when consumer spending
only accounted for 
0.36 percentage points
of the 2.2% growth rate. 

Growth of exports 
accounted for one point
of the 2Q growth,
which makes sense
because tariff hikes 
were expected
after mid-year,
encouraging 
a pull-ahead
of exports.

Averaging 1Q and 2Q
together would make 
a lot more sense
that just looking at 
the slow growth in 1Q 2018,
or the fast growth in 2Q 2018.