Sunday, October 25, 2020

AAII Sentiment declined to Moderately Bullish -- 8% cash recommended for traders


 This short term indicator
has recommended
8% cash, or less,
since March 18, 2020:



The Week Ending on October 22:

 = NEUTRAL

52.0% AAII Investors bullish
(was 49.4%
=  MODERATELY BULLISH
one week earlier)



Four  Week  Moving  Average: 

= MODERATELY BULLISH

43.2% of AAII Investors bullish
(was 39.0%
= BULLISH
last week)



Recommended
Portfolio Cash
percentage for
short term
stock traders: 8%
(was 0% cash
last week)



My own LONG-TERM
Stock Portfolio:
= 100% cash
(was 100% cash last week)
( % cash based on all
seven Economic Logic
stock timing indicators)



For the WEEK
ending 10/23/20: 

35.8% were Bullish 
   (was 34.8% in prior week)

31.2% were Neutral 
    (was 29.5%)

33.0% were Bearish 
    (was 35.7%)



AAII  Indicator Analysis:
    ( over 80% is Bearish )
( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )
( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )
  ( under 40% is Bullish )



This short term
indicator recommends
from 0% to 100% cash
in a stock portfolio,
based on an online survey
of individual investors.

This is a short term
contrary opinion
market timing indicator:
-- It is bullish when
AAII individual
investors are bearish,
and vice versa.

The four-week
moving average,
has much less
volatility than
weekly data.

Active traders
may prefer
the weekly data.

Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

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