EL Stock Market Timing Indicators declined to Moderately Bearish

The  Seven
Economic  Logic 
Stock  Market 
Timing  Indicators,

on October 23, 2020:  

S&P 500 at 3465

 

Important Note:  

The six month
Seasonality Cycle (3)
turns Bullish on
November 1, 2020,
increasing the
Indicator Total
by + 2 points !

Indicator  Total  
-1.5   =   Moderately Bearish  
( was -1.0 Neutral September 30) 
 ( Range is -7 to +7 )

The  Seven  Indicators
    Short  term  indicator                              
(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio
---   Moderately Bullish
At 43.2% bullish for the
10/22/20 four-week average


    Medium  term  indicators 
(2) Election  Year  Cycle
 --- Bullish
From June 2020 to June 2021


(3) Seasonality  Cycle
--- Bearish
From May 2020
through October 2020,
then bullish for six months.


(4) Corporate  Insiders
--- Bearish
No large buys from
September 2, 2020
through October 21


(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy
 --- Bullish
After a HUGE expansion
of Federal Reserve Credit
and the M2 money supply


    Long  term  indicators
(6) S&P500  Price to Sales  Ratio
--- Bearish
At 2.52x on October 23, 2020

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

--- Bearish   

At 1.4%, assuming dividends 

= 50% of 100.23  S&P500  earnings 

from  3Q 2019 through 2Q 2020

 

For  the  Indicator  Total:
+3  to  +7 = Bullish
+1,5  to + 2.5 = Moderately Bullish
-1  to  +1 =  Neutral
-1.5  to  -2.5 = Moderately Bearish
-3  to  -7 = Bearish


For  an  individual  indicator:
Bullish = +1 point
Moderately Bullish = +0.5 points
Neutral = 0 points
Moderately Bearish = -0.5 points
Bearish = -1 point