Sunday, March 25, 2018

Economic News for week ending March 23, 2018

Saturday, March 24, 2018
Weekly Commentary: 
Regime Change
by Doug Noland

full column here:


my summary is below:


For the week ending 
March 23, 2018:

S&P500 sank 6.0% (down 3.2% y-t-d)

Dow Industrials fell 5.7% (down 4.8%)

Dow Utilities declined 2.0% (down 7.2%)

Dow Transports fell 4.9% (down 4.2%)

S&P 400 Midcaps dropped 5.3% (down 3.2%)

Small cap Russell 2000 declined 4.8% (down 1.7%)

Nasdaq100 was hit 7.3% (up 1.7%)

Biotechs dropped 6.9% (up 5.7%)

With GOLD bullion surging $33, 
the HUI gold stock index jumped 3.3% 
   (down 8.0%)

U.K.'s FTSE dropped 3.4% (down 10.0%).

Japan's Nikkei 225 sank 4.9% (down 9.4% y-t-d). 

France's CAC40 fell 3.5% (down 4.1%). 

German DAX sank 4.1% (down 8.0%).

Spain's IBEX 35 dropped 3.8% (down 6.5%). 

Italy's FTSE MIB declined 2.5% (up 2.0%). 

Brazil's Bovespa slipped 0.6% (up 10.4%)

Mexico's Bolsa declined 2.0% (down 5.8%)

South Korea's Kospi index fell 3.1% (down 2.1%)

India’s Sensex lost 1.7% (down 4.3%)

China’s Shanghai dropped 3.6% (down 4.7%)

Turkey's Istanbul National 100 dipped 0.5% (up 1.1%)

Russia's MICEX slipped 0.4% (up 8.3%).



US  BONDS:
Ten-year Treasury yields fell three bps to 2.81% (up 41bps). 

Long bond yields declined two bps to 3.06% (up 32bps).

Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates 
added a basis point to 4.45% (up 22bps y-o-y). 

Fifteen-year rates 
increased one basis point to 3.91% (up 47bps). 

Five-year hybrid ARM rates 
added a basis point to 3.68%, 
the high since April 2011 (up 44bps). 

Jumbo mortgage 30-yr fixed rates 
up three bps to 4.60% (up 38bps).

M2 money supply rose $9.3bn last week 
to a record $13.914 TN
and M2 up (only) 3.9%, over the past year. 


Currency Watch:
The U.S. dollar index declined 0.9% to 89.436 
   (down 2.9% y-o-y). 


Commodities Watch:
Goldman Sachs Commodities Index jumped 2.4% (up 2.9% y-t-d). 
Spot Gold rose 2.5% to $1,347 (up 3.4%). 
Silver gained 1.9% to $16.582 (down 3.3%). 
Crude Oil surged $3.54 to $65.88 (up 9%). 
Gasoline jumped 4.5% (up 13%)
Natural Gas fell 3.6% (down 12%). 
Copper sank 3.7% (down 9%). 
Wheat declined 1.6% (up 8%). 
Corn fell 1.4% (up 8%).


Market Dislocation Watch:
March 20 - Bloomberg (David McLaughlin, Ben Brody, and Billy House): 
"Facebook Inc. is drawing scrutiny from the main U.S. privacy watchdog and half a dozen congressional committees over how the personal data of 50 million users was obtained by a data analytics firm… Facebook said it would conduct staff-level briefings of six committees Tuesday and Wednesday. That includes meetings with the House and Senate Judiciary Committees, as well as the commerce and intelligence committees of both chambers. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is also probing whether Facebook violated terms of a 2011 consent decree over its handling of personal user data that was transferred to Cambridge Analytica without users' knowledge, according to a person familiar with the matter. The FTC will be sending a letter to the company, another person said."


Trump Administration Watch:
March 21 - CNBC (Yian Mui): 
"Republicans and Democrats struck a preliminary agreement Wednesday on some major points of contention in a bill to fund the government, a source familiar with the bill told CNBC. The deadline for passing the spending bill that would keep the government running through September is midnight Friday… Under the agreement, spending on opioid treatment, prevention and research would increase by nearly $3 billion and on infrastructure by $10 billion. It also would authorize $1.57 billion in new border security funding, most of which would go toward technology."


Federal Reserve Watch:
March 21 - Financial Times (Sam Fleming): 
"The Federal Reserve lifted short-term interest rates by a quarter-point and forecast that rates will rise higher than expected in the coming years as its new chairman Jay Powell responds to strengthening growth at home and abroad. The US central bank raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 1.5-1.75% as it predicted inflation would accelerate in the coming months. The Fed's median forecast for interest rates at the end of 2018 was left unchanged, but its projections pointed to an extra increase in 2019 with more tightening to come in 2020. 'The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months,' the Fed said… 'The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labour market conditions will remain strong.'"


U.S. Bubble Watch:
March 21 - Reuters (Jason Lange): 
"The U.S. current account deficit widened slightly more than expected in the fourth quarter, amid an increase in goods imports. the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, widened by $26.7 billion to $128.2 billion, or 2.6 percent of national economic output."

March 22 - Bloomberg (Shelly Hagan): 
"Americans' outlook for the economy climbed in March for a third straight month to match the highest level since 2002, data from the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed… Monthly gauge of economic expectations increased to 56 from 54.5 39% of respondents said economy 'getting better,' the biggest share since March 2002 and up from 38% a month earlier; was 30% in December."

March 21 - Bloomberg (Katia Dmitrieva): 
"Sales of previously-owned U.S. homes rose more than expected in the first gain in three months, indicating that job gains and tax cuts are supporting demand despite low supply, National Association of Realtors data showed… Contract closings increased 3% m/m to 5.54m annual rate (est. 5.4m)… Median sales price rose 5.9% y/y to $241,700. Inventory of available properties declined 8.1% y/y to 1.59m; lowest for Feb. in data going back to 1999."

March 21 - Bloomberg (Noah Buhayar): 
"American homes are at their least affordable in the report's history. But the median listing price of available starter homes has risen 9.6% in the past year, easily beating out the trade-up and premium categories, while starter-home supply has fallen to a new low this quarter… Perhaps the most striking finding is that the very buyers who are typically least able to plunk down a lot of money are confronted with the least affordable homes."

March 22 - CNBC (Diana Olick): 
"The critical housing shortage is now taking its toll on renters. Potential buyers are having an increasingly difficult time finding a home they can afford, so they are renting longer. That's pushing rental demand higher and rent prices along with it. The median rent in the United State rose 2.8% over the past year to $1,445, the fastest pace of appreciation since May 2016, according to Zillow. Rents are rising fastest in some expected markets, like Seattle and Sacramento, California, and in some unexpected places, including Minneapolis and Atlanta."

March 21 - Wall Street Journal (Theo Francis and Joann S. Lublin): 
"The chief executives of America's biggest companies are on track for another banner year of compensation, fueled by a soaring stock market and an improving economy. Median pay for the chief executives of 133 of the largest U.S. companies reached an all-time high of $11.6 million in 2017, up from $11.2 million in 2016… Total pay-including salary, cash incentives, equity, perquisites and more-rose at least 9.9% for half the executives, the fastest annual growth since 2014, while about a quarter of the executives received raises of 25% or more."

March 21 - Bloomberg (Anders Melin and Dana Hull): 
"Here's what Tesla Inc. shareholders just bought for $2.6 billion: a stronger guarantee that Elon Musk will stick around for at least the next decade. Investors… approved what may be the largest compensation deal in history for its chief executive officer, pegged on ambitions to turn Tesla into one of the world's largest companies as it ventures beyond solar panels and electric cars. If successful, the award could end up being worth more than $50 billion…"


China Watch:

March 20 - Bloomberg: "China's national parliament gave its rubber stamp of approval to a dizzying overhaul that will reverberate through the world's second-largest economy for years. They restructured almost every cabinet-level ministry, created a powerful new anti-graft agency, repealed presidential term limits and appointed Xi's closest advisers to key positions. The revamp immediately gives Xi a much freer hand to direct policy as the economy is slowing, debt is mounting and U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening higher tariffs… Over the long term, his power play will be more consequential: Xi can either turn China into a global juggernaut or set the stage for a destabilizing succession crisis. 'He's clearly convinced that the only way to make China great is to lead it from the top -- power has to be centralized, people have to be extremely loyal to the party,' said David Zweig, a political science professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. 'He could be the source of long term collapse in the system, if he doesn't invigorate it or carry out the necessary changes.'"

March 21 - Wall Street Journal (Lingling Wei, Yoko Kubota and Liza Lin): 
"China is preparing to hit back at trade offensives from Washington with tariffs aimed at President Donald Trump's support base, including levies targeting U.S. agricultural exports from Farm Belt states, according to people familiar The plans are part of a strategy that has taken shape in recent weeks as China seeks to avert tariffs by warning of possible repercussions and offering incentives to the U.S., including better access to China's markets, especially in the financial sector. China's President Xi Jinping has taken this carrot-and-stick approach in an effort to avoid a trade war, these people said."

March 21 - Reuters (Ben Blanchard and Brenda Goh):
 "China blamed U.S. export restrictions for its record trade surplus with the United States, but expressed hope that a solution can be found to settle trade issues between the world's two biggest economies as U.S. tariffs loom. Beijing was bracing on Thursday for an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump of tariffs of as much as $60 billion on Chinese imports, raising fears that the two countries could be sliding towards a trade war."

March 21 - Bloomberg: 
"As China's President Xi Jinping steps up efforts to rein in excessive borrowing, the nation's corporate bond market faces rising default risks as weaker firms and local borrowers struggle to roll over obligations. The latest salvo came last month, when the top economic planning body said it will step up scrutiny of the public works-related assets held by companies seeking to sell bonds. The National Development and Reform Commission, or NDRC, also said it would further regulate bond sales by public-private partnership projects."

March 21 - Bloomberg: 
"It seemed like a good idea at the time, but now an incentive that helped sell $668 billion of corporate bonds to Chinese investors is coming back to haunt borrowers. They're embedded put options, a feature that lets debt holders demand repayment, typically after interest rates rise. With borrowing costs ticking higher amid Beijing's squeeze on debt, one company has already defaulted this month after investors requested they be paid back early. Ratings companies are warning there's more to come with China accounting for about 69% of all the puttable notes worldwide… 'We expect onshore bond defaults to rise this year as liquidity tightening and high funding cost are hurting weak companies' refinancing,' said Christopher Lee, managing director of corporate ratings at S&P Global Ratings… 'Bondholders may be increasingly likely to exercise their put options as credit quality of the issuers deteriorate.'"


Global Bubble Watch:
March 21 - Financial Times (Eric Platt and James Fontanella-Khan): 
"Global dealmaking this year crossed the $1trillion mark on Tuesday, the fastest it has ever reached that level, as a wave of consolidation spreads across the US and activity in the UK, China, Germany and Japan accelerates. Buoyed by quickening economic growth and strong business confidence, bankers have cut a string of $10bn-plus deals in 2018. Tax cuts passed in Washington last year have provided an accelerant, as boardrooms reassess the amount of capital they can plough into acquisitions… Dealmaking is up more than 50% from a year ago and 12% higher than at the same point in 2007, which remains the high water mark for mergers and acquisitions with deals totalling more than $4.6tn announced in the year…"

March 22 - Financial Times (Kate Allen):
 "The world's poorest countries are increasing their borrowing at a worrying pace and face the mounting risk of debt crises, the IMF has warned. Since 2013, the median ratio of public debt to gross domestic product in low-income countries has risen 13 percentage points to hit 47% in 2017… The research found that 40% of low-income developing countries face 'significant debt-related challenges', up from 21% just five years ago."

March 21 - Bloomberg (Ksenia Galouchko): 
"Veteran investor Jim Rogers is already predicting the worst bear market for stocks in his lifetime. And that's before you figure in a trade war. 'The next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime -- just because of the debt -- but if we also have a trade war, it's going to be worse than a disaster,' Rogers… said… 'I'm extremely concerned. I've read enough history and been through enough markets to know that trade wars are usually a disaster.'"


Fixed-Income Bubble Watch:
March 22 - Financial Times (Alex Scaggs): 
"Before Campbell Soup sold $5bn of debt this month to fund its purchase of US snack-food maker Snyder's-Lance, its chief financial officer told analysts that the company's prized investment-grade status was safe. 
But it is only just. The deal prompted rating agencies to downgrade Campbell to the tier above junk. While… Campbell is more indebted than most of its peers, the era of ultra-low interest rates has left it plenty of company in the riskiest segment of the investment grade market as corporate America's borrowings have ballooned. The chunk of the market rated at triple B - the group of ratings just above junk - now accounts for 48% of the investment-grade market… What is more, these corporate borrowers have piled on debt. triple B-rated issuers were slightly below 3 times levered in 2017, according to Citigroup, up from just about 2.5 times in 2015."


Europe Watch:
March 19 - Reuters (Gabriela Baczynska and Alastair Macdonald): 
"Britain and the European Union agreed… to a transition period to avoid a 'cliff edge' Brexit next year - though only after London accepted a potential solution for Northern Ireland's land border that may face stiff opposition at home. The pound surged on confirmation that Britain would remain effectively a non-voting EU member for 21 months until the end of 2020. Some business leaders, however, echoed a warning from EU negotiator Michel Barnier that the deal is legally binding only if London agrees the whole withdrawal treaty by next March."

Geopolitical Watch:
March 21 - Financial Times (Eric Platt and James Fontanella-Khan): 
"The US has reaffirmed its support for Taiwan's security just after China, which regards Taiwan as its own territory, escalated military activities near the self-ruled island. Taiwan's defence forces scrambled aircrafts and vessels this week after China's aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, entered waters in the Taiwan Strait that are part of Taiwan's air defence identification zone. Speaking in Taipei…, Alex Wong, deputy assistant secretary in the State Department's Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, stressed that it was embedded in US law to strengthen Taiwan's ability to defend its 'hard won democracy'. The US 'commitment to the Taiwan people, to their security, to their democracy, has never been stronger,' Mr Wong said. 'The United States has been, is, and always will be Taiwan's closest friend and partner.'"


March 21 - Reuters (Ben Blanchard): 
"A widely read Chinese state-run newspaper said… China should prepare for military action over self-ruled Taiwan, and pressure Washington over cooperation on North Korea, after the United States passed a law to boost ties with Taiwan. Beijing was infuriated after U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation last week that encourages the United States to send senior officials to Taiwan to meet Taiwanese counterparts and vice versa."

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