Analysis of 4Q 2019 Real GDP first estimate

One 

unusual 

number

was found 

in the 

4Q 2019

Real GDP

details:

Net trade 

( imports

minus 

exports )

accounted 

for almost 

three-quarters

( +1.49%)

of the 

total GDP

annual growth 

rate for 

the quarter 

(+2.08%).

That's 

very 

unusual.

It was 

the biggest 

net imports 

contribution 

to GDP

since 2009:

This is counted 

as good news,

boosting the 

GDP growth rate 

for the quarter.

Why did

net trade 

collapse?

Mainly because of  

plunging imports. 

The plunge 

of  imports 

reflected 

weaker 

U.S. demand.

And that's 

actually 

bad news,

not good news.