AAII Sentiment remains Bullish -- no cash recommended for traders

NOTE:

This indicator has recommended 

8% cash, or less, for active traders, 

since March 18, 2020:

The Four-Week Moving Average 

of this contrary opinion indicator

(bullish when AAII investors are bearish)

is one the seven ECONOMIC LOGIC

U.S. stock market timing indicators.

-- It's the ONLY short-term indicator.

For ONE WEEK 

ending 7/8/20:

27.2%   Bullish  (was 22.2% last week)

30.2%   Neutral (was 32.0%)

42.7%  Bearish  (was 45.9%)

Last week 38.9% 

of AAII Investors

were bullish on

an online survey

Rating = BULLISH

(was 32.5% = BULLISH last week)

The FOUR WEEK 

moving average: 

is 34.6% bullish 

Rating = BULLISH

(was 35.2% = BULLISH last week)

Recommended Portfolio

Cash for active traders:

0% (no cash)

(was 0% cash last week)

Economic Logic 

Long-Term Portfolio:

100% cash

(was 100% cash last week)

( % cash here based on all 

seven Economic Logic 

indicators)

This indicator recommends 

from 0% to 100% cash 

in a stock trading portfolio,

based on a survey 

of individual investors.

AAII  Indicator Analysis:

   ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 

  ( under 40% is Bullish )

I prefer the four-week moving average, 

because it has much less volatility

than weekly data.

Active traders may prefer weekly data.

Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey