EL stock market timing Indicators

The  Economic  Logic  

Seven  Stock  Market  

Timing  Indicators:  

Indicator  Total   

-1.0   =   Neutral    

( was -1.0 last week )  

 ( Range is -7 to +7 )

The  Seven  Indicators:

One  short  term  indicator:    

(1) AAII Sentiment Ratio

--- Bullish 

At 35.2% bullish 

(7/8/20 4-week average) 

Four  medium  term  indicators:  

(2) Election Year Cycle

 --- Bullish 

From June 2020 to June 2021

(3) Seasonality Cycle

--- Bearish 

From May 2020 through October 2020, 

       then bullish for 6months. 

(4) Corporate Insiders

--- Bearish 

Very few large buys in past few weeks

(5) Federal Reserve Policy

 --- Bullish 

After a huge expansion of Fed Credit

Two  long  term  indicators: 

(6) S&P500 Price/Sales Ratio 

--- Bearish 

At 2.25x on July 10, 2020

(7) S&P500 Dividend Yield

 --- Bearish 

At 2.3%, assuming dividends 

= 50% of 139.27  S&P500 2019 earnings

For  the  Indicator  Total: 

+3  to  +7 = Bullish

+1,5  to + 2.5 = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1 =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5 = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7 = Bearish

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish = +1 point

Moderately Bullish = +0.5 points

Neutral = 0 points

Moderately Bearish = -0.5 points

Bearish = -1 point