Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Over 20% of the labor force receives unemployment compensation

There are about 
160 million people 
in the civilian labor force, 
according to the Bureau 
of Labor Statistics.

31.8 million receive 
unemployment
compensation 
under state and 
federal programs. 











31.8 million 
means
over 20% 
of the 
labor force 
receives 
unemployment 
compensation.

So how can the 
unemployment rate
be under 20% ?


About 20% 
of the labor force 
is on unemployment 
insurance.

Newly laid-off workers 
keep filing for initial 
unemployment benefits
week after week.

On top of the people
already unemployed
and receiving benefits. 

People who started working 
again are not making 
a visible dent in the curve.



In the week ended July 18, 
31.8 million Americans
 (not seasonally adjusted)
were collecting unemployment
insurance, just off the peak.
Source: Department of Labor


The 16.2 million continuing
claims that were reported 
by the mainstream media
were only the claims under 
state unemployment 
programs.

There is a huge difference 
between 16.2 million state
continuing claims and 
31.8 million total state 
and federal continuing 
claims !

The federal programs 
are new, established by 
the CARES Act.

That doesn't mean
they should be
ignored !



The mainstream media
loves to report bad news
about Trump -- they even
make up fake news, 
such as the evidence-free 
Trump-Russian collusion 
fairy tale, since 2016
... but then they 
completely miss honest
reporting about how many 
Americans are really
collecting unemployment 
insurance.

I don't get it.

$4,000 a month unemployment
insurance for each 
of two people I know 
in Michigan, 
at least until the
end of July 2020
 -- not bad money
for staying home !



Seasonal 
adjustments 
make no sense 
in the COVID-19 age,
but the 
“not seasonally adjusted” 
data in the charts is similar.


Example: 
For the week ending July 18:

    Seasonally adjusted: 
+1.42 million new 
initial unemployment 
claims with state 
unemployment offices
  Up from +1.30 million 
in the prior week, 
and the highest 
in four weeks. 

    Not seasonally adjusted: 
+1.37 million new 
initial unemployment 
claims with state 
unemployment offices.
  Down from +1.51 million 
in the prior week, 
and the lowest so far in this 
18 week crisis.


Federal Pandemic 
Unemployment 
Assistance
     (PUA): 
had 13.18 million 
continuing claims 
for contract workers, 
the self-employed, 
and other “gig workers”: 
  During the week, 
+974,999 new PUA claims 
were added by 48 states.

Two states 
seem to be
running late
with processing
those claims.

State and federal programs 
combined last week totaled 
+2.35 million 
( +1.37 million initial 
state claims 
+974,999 initial 
federal PUA claims) 

+2.35 million is a huge number
after 18 weeks of this COVID
catastrophe !

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