Tuesday, July 28, 2020

The new work from home world is a big transition ... that will be painful

The next article 
explains that US
unemployment
is currently
at least 20%,
( 32 million )
based on 
the number
of people 
receiving 
state and federal 
unemployment
compensation.

The June 
employment
report claiming 
we had 11.1%
( 17.8 million )
unemployment 
was a lie, so far 
from reality
that I'm surprised 
no Democrats have 
accused the Trump
Administration of
economics fraud !

That report apparently
ignored a new federal
unemployment program
for "gig workers"
(self employed) 
not covered 
by the conventional 
state unemployment
insurance.

Unemployment 
peaked at 25%
during the 1929
Recession, as a 
comparison.

Let's consider
what industries
have been hurt
the most by the 
unemployment,
and media hyped
fears of COVID-19:


RETAIL  STORES:
Retailers have
been in trouble
for several years.

Too many square feet
of retail floor space as
online sales grow.

Of course the pandemic
made that bad trend 
much worse.

New bankruptcy
of the Ascena Group,
($3 billion liabilities)
whose remaining brands 
are Ann Taylor, LOFT, 
Lou & Grey, Lane Bryant, 
Cacique, Catherines, 
and Justice.

It had 3,500 stores 
a year ago.

They closed all 660
Dressbarns last year.

Will close 1,600
more stores this year.

Hopes to emerge 
from bankruptcy 
next year with
about 1,200 stores. 


Other 
"Pandemic Victims":
J.C. Penney 
   ($8 billion),
Neiman Marcus 
    ($5.5 billion).
J.Crew, 
Stage Stores, 
GNC, 
RTW Retailwinds 
(New York & Co.), 
Brooks Brothers, 
Sur La Table
Pier 1 Imports.

Tailored Brands
(Men’s Wearhouse, 
JoS. A. Bank, and 
other brands). 
is approaching 
bankruptcy.

The business 
at retail malls 
is nearly dead.



TRAVEL  INDUSTRY:
The travel industry
(planes, hotels, motels
rental cars, resorts 
and tourist attractions)
and related businesses
(restaurants depending 
on tourists) employ up to 
10% of the workforce in
many developed nations.

Some people have started
flying again to visit family
and friends, but the summer
travel season (and September)
have not bounced back much.

Businesses have NOT 
returned to the use of
airplanes for business 
travel.

Airlines are in huge
financial trouble.

This appears to be
a global phenomenon
with people working
from home. 


Roughly 60% of US
bank executives 
said they don’t expect 
all of their employees 
to return to the office. 

Over 40% said they plan 
to reduce their real estate 
footprint, according to 
a survey of US bank 
executives by 
Accenture Plc.

Laying off 
large numbers 
of workers 
is possible when 
the government’s
job retention 
PPP scheme ends
in September.



Goldman Sachs and 
Nomura said they 
plan to send only 10% 
of their UK workforce 
back to their City 
of London offices.



Working from home 
set in motion many 
negative impacts 
across the economy. 

Almost half 
of UK workers 
are working 
from home, 
up from 5%
just before 
the lockdown. 

Most would 
return to work 
immediately 
if they could.

Their employers 
seem to like the 
remote working 
experiment, 
which could save 
a lot of rent money, 
if continued.


The shift to 
work-from-home 
is hitting businesses 
such as cafes, bars,
restaurants, bars, 
hair salons, and 
public transportation.

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