Economic Logic Stock Market Timing Indicators remain Neutral

Economic  Logic 
  Stock  Market 
Timing  Indicators,

 as of December 31, 2021, 

with the S&P 500 at 4.766.18

Indicator  Total  

0  Neutral

 ( Range is -7 to +7 ) 

( Was -1.0  Neutral

on December 3, 2021, 

with the S&P500 at 4547.4) 

The  Seven  Indicators:

    Short  term  indicator                              

(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio

---   Moderately Bullish at 47.8% bullish,

for the 12/29/21 four-week average 

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2021/12/aaii-sentiment-remains-moderately_30.html

    Medium  term  indicators 

(2) Election  Year  Cycle

 --- Neutral, 

until the end of 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones4j.html

  

(3) Seasonality  Cycle

--- Bullish, 

from November 2021 through May 2022,

 then bullish for six months

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_sp.html

 (4) Corporate  Insider  Trading

--- Moderately Bearish,

Lots of large sales and no large buys

in the first half of December (bearish), 

but neutral in the second half

= Moderately Bearish.

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/01/corporate-insider-selling-remains.html

 

(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy

 --- Bullish,  after a huge expansion of Federal Reserve Credit

and the M2 money supply

    Long  term  indicators

(6) S&P500  Price to Sales Ratio

--- Bearish  at 3.26x 

on December 31, 2021

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

(P/S Ratio updated after every trading day)

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

 --- Bearish at 1.8% 

Assuming that dividends equal 50% 

of the latest four quarters

of S&P500 "as reported" earnings

($175.37 for the year ending 9/30/21)

 

 

For  the  Indicator  Total:

+3  to  +7         = Bullish

+1.5  to + 2.5   = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1          =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5     = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7           = Bearish

 

 

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish                      = +1 point

Moderately Bullish  = +0.5 points

Neutral                      = 0 points

Moderately Bearish  = -0.5 points

Bearish                      = -1 point