Economic Logic Stock Market Timing Indicators declined to Moderately Bearish, from Neutral last month (expected to be Bearish in two weeks)

Very  Important  Note:

In two weeks the (Seasonality Cycle (indicator #3) will reverse from Bullish to being Bearish for the six months from May 2022 through October 2022. That change alone will reduce the Indicator Total by two points (bearish). The reason the stock market gains so much more in the November through April period is simple: During that period, wealthy and upper middle class employees get annual bonuses, stock options and profit sharing checks -- money they don't need for typical monthly expenses. And several of their biggest annual expenses will be after April, in the Summer: Summer vacations, most of their annual property taxes, and Fall school tuition for their children. The stock market goes up when there's extra money to invest and investor confidence is rising. That has happened far more in November through April, than in May through October.

 

Economic  Logic 
  Stock  Market 
Timing  Indicators

    On April 15, 2022

with the S&P500 at 4.392.59

Indicator  Total

-2 1/2   Moderately Bearish

 ( Range is -7 to +7 ) 

 

(was -1 Neutral on March 10, 2022

with the S&P500 at 4,259.49
 https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

( Was  -2  Moderately Bearish on February 8, 2022

with the S&P500 at 4,521.54

 

 

 

The  Seven  Indicators:

    Short  term  indicator                              

(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio

---   Moderately Bullish at 41.0% bullish,

              for the 4/13/22 four-week average 

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/aaii-sentiment-remains-moderately_15.html

 

    Medium  term  indicators 

(2) Election  Year  Cycle

 --- Neutral, 

until the end of 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones4j.html

  

(3) Seasonality  Cycle

--- Bullish, 

from November 2021 through April 2022,

 hen bearish for six months, starting May 1, 2022 !

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_sp.html

 (4) Corporate  Insider  Trading

--- Bearish, a big decline from Neutral last month

  (see next post)

 

(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy

 --- Bearish, after many years of a huge expansion  

of Federal Reserve Credit, and the resulting high inflation,

the uptrend has ended, and this indicator is now bearish,

based on Fed talk (bearish) and actions (moderately bearish)

    Long  term  indicators

(6) S&P500  Price to Sales Ratio

--- Bearish  at 2.80x 

on April 14, 2022

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

(P/S Ratio updated after every trading day)

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

 --- Bearish at 2.3% 

Assuming that dividends equal 50% 

of the latest four quarters

of S&P500 "as reported" earnings

( $197.87 for the year 2021 )

 

 

For  the  Indicator  Total:

+3  to  +7         = Bullish

+1.5  to + 2.5   = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1          =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5     = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7           = Bearish

 

 

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish                      = +1 point

Moderately Bullish  = +0.5 points

Neutral                      = 0 points

Moderately Bearish  = -0.5 points

Bearish