In my first short analysis yesterday, I noted that September 2022 aw payroll employment data were much worse than in September 2021.
Today I am reporting that adjusted September 2022 payroll employment data have very suspicious seasonal adjustments, and should be completely ignored.
I prefer to compare raw data for one month with the same month in the prior year:
September 2021
Raw data: +704,000 new payroll jobs
Reported adjusted data: +194,000 new payroll jobs
September 2022
Raw data: +431,000 new payroll jobs
Reported adjusted data: +263,000 new payroll jobs
My analysis:
If +704,000 new jobs in September 2021 resulted in +194,000 new jobs reported to the general public, then it makes no sense to me that only +431,000 new jobs in September 2022 (39% fewer than the +704,000 in September 2021), resulted in +263,000 new jobs being reported to the general public (36% more jobs than the +194,000 reported in September 2021) .
Raw Data Down -39% in September (2022 vs. 2021)
But Adjusted Data Up +36% (2022 vs. 2021)?
That makes no sense!
The seasonal adjustments for September 2022 must have been very different than the seasonal adjustments for September 2021.
I see no logical reason for such large differences in seasonal adjustments from year to year. Therefore, I must dismiss the reported adjusted payroll numbers as being worthless.
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