Monthly AAII Portfolio Allocation remains Neutral & Weekly AAII Stock Sentiment remained Neutral

 (1) Monthly AAII Portfolio Allocation Survey: 

NEUTRAL  

AAII investors are Neutral, based on their own investments. 

(2) Weekly AAII Stock Market Sentiment Survey: 

NEUTRAL

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 44.6% bears.

Prior weeks:

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 41.8% bears.

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 40.4% bears.

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 40.2% bears.

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 40.2% bears.

55% and above = Bullish

50% to 55% = Moderately Bullish

40% to 50% = Neutral

30% to 40% = Moderately Bearish

Below 30% = Bearish

(1) MONTHLY  PORTFOLIO  ALLOCATION  SURVEY

The actual portfolios of these AAII investors in November had 62.35% stocks and stock mutual funds, which I rate as Neutral. October 2022 had 61.6% stocks and stock mutual funds, which I rate as Neutral. September 2022 was 63.4%. The historical average is 61.5%. Based on the percentage of stocks claimed in their portfolios, AAII investors are nowhere near their bearish sentiment at market bottoms in the past -- with roughly 40% allocated to stocks at the 1990, 2002, and 2009 stock market lows.  Far below the current 62.35%.

(2) WEEKLY  AAII  INVESTOR  SENTIMENT  SURVEY

I switched to the monthly AAII Portfolio Allocation Survey, instead of the weekly AAII Stock Market Sentiment survey, as one of my Seven EL Stock Market Timing Indicators index.  I'm tracking weekly AAII Sentiment with a different interpretation of the data than in the past. I will be bullish only when I see an unusually large percentage of bearish AAII investors, as a contrary opinion. The buy signal will last for one-week, because weekly data can be very volatile. My prior interpretation of the sentiment data, since 2005, used a four-week average of the percentage of bullish investors. That interpretation stopped working in 2022 -- it had been bullish all year.

(2) AAII  data for the week ending 12/14/22: 

24.3% were Bullish  --  (under 20% is unusually low)
   (was 24.7% last week)

31.1% were Neutral
    (was 33.5% last week)

44.6% were Bearish  --  (over 55% is unusually high)

    (was 41.8% last week)

 AAII  DATA  NO  LONGER  USED  FOR  MARKET  TIMING:

Week Ending on December 14, 2022: 

= BULLISH

35.3% of AAII Investors were bullish 

(was 37.5% bullish =  BULLISH last week) 

 

Four  Week  Moving  Average:

= BULLISH

38.1% of AAII Investors were bullish

(was 40.7% bullish = MODERATELY BULLISH last week)

 

 

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 0%

(was 2% cash last week)

 

 

AAII  Indicator  Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 

  ( under 40% is Bullish

NOTE: SEVEN  STOCK  MARKET  TIMING  INDICATORS:

My average of seven market timing indicators, predicting stock prices 

over the next 3 to 6 months, is more useful than any single indicator.

BEARISH on November 19, 2022

.... ECONOMIC LOGIC: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -3 (range is from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

BEARISH on September 30, 2022

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 (range is from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

BEARISH on August 21, 2022

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 1/2 (range from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

BEARISH on July 15, 2022

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 (range from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

Sources of Data:

September AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Equity Exposure Modestly Declines | AAII

...... Economic Logic: AAII Sentiment -- another way to look at AAII data (el2017.blogspot.com)
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results