The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 1/2 (range from -7 to +7)

   Economic  Logic 

  Stock  Market 
Timing  Indicators

On August 19, 2022 with the S&P 500 at 4,228.48

 

Indicator  Total

- 4 1/2   Bearish

 ( Range is -7 to +7 )

(was -4  Bearish on July 17, 2022 with the S&P500 at 3,863.16

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 (range from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

(was -4  Bearish on June 10, 2022 with the S&P500 at 3,900.86

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish (el2017.blogspot.com)

(was -3  Bearish on April 29, 2022 with the S&P500 at 4131.9

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/05/as-i-warned-on-april-17-economic-logic.html

 

(was -2 1/2 Moderately Bearish on April 15, 2022 with the S&P500 at 4.392.59

 https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

(was -1 Neutral on March 10, 2022 with the S&P500 at 4,259.49

 https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

( Was  -2  Moderately Bearish on February 8, 2022 with the S&P500 at 4,521.54

...... Economic Logic: Economic Logic Stock Market Timing Indicators declined to Moderately Bearish, from Neutral last month (el2017.blogspot.com)

 

 

 

The  Seven  Indicators:

    Short  term  indicator                              

(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio

---   Moderately Bullish at 44.7% bullish,

       for the 8/17/22 four-week average 

...... Economic Logic: AAII Sentiment remains Moderately Bullish, with 12% cash recommended for traders (el2017.blogspot.com)

 

 

    Medium  term  indicators 

(2) Election  Year  Cycle

 --- Neutral, 

until the end of 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones4j.html

  

(3) Seasonality  Cycle

--- Bearish, 

for six months, starting May 1, 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_sp.html

 (4) Corporate  Insider  Trading

--- Bearish, 

for the past four weeks

see prior post

 

 

(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy

 --- Bearish,  

After many years 

of a huge expansion   

of Federal Reserve Credit, 

and the resulting high inflation, 

the uptrend has ended, 

so this indicator is Bearish, 

based on actions

in the past month

    Long  term  indicators

(6) S&P500  Price to Sales Ratio

--- Bearish at 2.62x 

on August 19, 2022

Low  0.80  March 2009

High  3.04  December 2021

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

(P/S Ratio updated after every trading day)

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

 --- Bearish at 2.3% 

Assuming that dividends equal 50% 

of the latest four quarters

of S&P500 "as reported" earnings

( $197.91 for 2Q 2021 through 1Q 2022 )

 

 

For  the  Indicator  Total:

+3  to  +7         = Bullish

+1.5  to + 2.5   = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1          =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5     = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7           = Bearish

 

 

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish                      = +1 point

Moderately Bullish  = +0.5 points

Neutral                      = 0 points

Moderately Bearish  = -0.5 points

Bearish