The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish

Economic  Logic 
  Stock  Market 
Timing  Indicators

On June 10, 2022 with the S&P 500 at 3,900.86

 

Indicator  Total

- 4 Bearish

 ( Range is -7 to +7 )

 

(was -3  Bearish on April 29, 2022

On April 29 at 4131.93

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/05/as-i-warned-on-april-17-economic-logic.html

 

(was -2 1/2 Moderately Bearish on April 15, 2022

with the S&P500 at 4.392.59

 https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

(was -1 Neutral on March 10, 2022

with the S&P500 at 4,259.49
 https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

( Was  -2  Moderately Bearish on February 8, 2022

with the S&P500 at 4,521.54

 

 

 

The  Seven  Indicators:

    Short  term  indicator                              

(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio

---   Bullish at 34.6% bullish,

       for the 6/8/22 four-week average 

http://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/06/short-term-indicator-aaii-sentiment_78.html

 

 

    Medium  term  indicators 

(2) Election  Year  Cycle

 --- Neutral, 

until the end of 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones4j.html

  

(3) Seasonality  Cycle

--- Bearish, 

for six months, starting May 1, 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_sp.html

 (4) Corporate  Insider  Trading

--- Bearish, 

for the past six weeks

http://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/06/insider-trading-declined-to-bearish.html

 

 

(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy

 --- Bearish,  

After many years 

of a huge expansion   

of Federal Reserve Credit, 

and the resulting high inflation, 

the uptrend has ended, 

so this indicator is Bearish, 

based on actions

in the past three weeks

    Long  term  indicators

(6) S&P500  Price to Sales Ratio

--- Bearish at 2.49x 

on June 10, 2022

Low  0.80  March 2009

High  3.04  December 2021

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

(P/S Ratio updated after every trading day)

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

 --- Bearish at 2.5% 

Assuming that dividends equal 50% 

of the latest four quarters

of S&P500 "as reported" earnings

( $197.89 for 2Q 2021 to 1Q 2022 )

 

 

For  the  Indicator  Total:

+3  to  +7         = Bullish

+1.5  to + 2.5   = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1          =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5     = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7           = Bearish

 

 

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish                      = +1 point

Moderately Bullish  = +0.5 points

Neutral                      = 0 points

Moderately Bearish  = -0.5 points

Bearish