Short term indicator AAII Sentiment remains Bullish (but my seven market timing indicator average remains Bearish) -- 0% cash recommended for traders

This week the The news this week is   

Data Source:

 https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

NOTE:

My seven STOCK  MARKET  TIMING  INDICATORS were:

 

BEARISH on May 1, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/05/as-i-warned-on-april-17-economic-logic.html

 

MODERATELY  BEARISH on April 17, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

NEUTRAL on March 11, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html   

 

MODERATELY  BEARISH on February 8, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/02/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

My average of seven useful indicators works better than any one stock market timing indicator.  

 

This AAII Sentiment indicator has been bullish for 18 weeks in a row, indicating that the stock market is oversold. But unlike in past years, there was no rebound. The last time this indicator was so bullish was from May through August 2020. This is the only short term market timing indicator I track, of the seven market timing indicators I follow. AAII Sentiment replaced my prior short term indicator, the Put / Call Ratio, that I had followed from 1977 through 2005. The P/C Ration had stopped working in 2005. AAII Sentiment seems to have stopped working in 2022.

 

AAII Sentiment does NOT tell us if we are in a bull market or a bear market. It tells us if stocks are "overbought" or "oversold". It only tells is if buying stocks today is a good idea for the next few weeks. The weekly indicator can change a lot in a few weeks. AAII Sentiment is a contrary opinion sentiment indicator, so it is bullish when AAII individual investors are bearish, and vice versa, recommending from 0% to 100% cash in a common stock portfolio. Based on market sentiment from an anonymous online poll of members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  The four-week moving average has much less volatility than weekly data, but active stock traders should prefer the weekly data.

 

Week Ending on June 8, 2022: 

= BULLISH

30.9% of AAII Investors were bullish 

(was 46.3% bullish = MODERATELY  BULLISH last week) 

 

Four  Week  Moving  Average: 

= BULLISH

34.6% of AAII Investors were bullish

(was 35.1% bullish = BULLISH last week)

 

 

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 0%

(was 0% cash last week)

 

 

Data for the week ending 6/8/22: 

21.0% were Bullish
   (was 32.0% last week)

32.1% were Neutral 
    (was 30.9%)

46.9% were Bearish 

    (was 37.1%)

 

 

AAII  Indicator  Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 

  ( under 40% is Bullish