As I warned on April 17, The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators declined to Bearish today, from Moderately Bearish on April 17

Very  Important  Note that was published on  April 17, 2022:

In two weeks the (Seasonality Cycle (indicator #3) will reverse from Bullish to being Bearish for the six months from May 2022 through October 2022. That change alone will reduce the Indicator Total by two points (bearish). The reason the stock market gains so much more in the November through April period is simple: During that period, wealthy and upper middle class employees get annual bonuses, stock options and profit sharing checks -- money they don't need for typical monthly expenses. And several of their biggest annual expenses will be after April, in the Summer: Summer vacations, most of their annual property taxes, and Fall school tuition for their children. The stock market goes up when there's extra money to invest and investor confidence is rising. That has happened far more in November through April, than in May through October.

 

Economic  Logic 
  Stock  Market 
Timing  Indicators

On April 29 with the S&P 500 at 4131.93

 

Indicator  Total

-3   Bearish

 ( Range is -7 to +7 ) 

 

(was -2 1/2 Moderately Bearish on April 15, 2022

with the S&P500 at 4.392.59

 https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

(was -1 Neutral on March 10, 2022

with the S&P500 at 4,259.49
 https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

( Was  -2  Moderately Bearish on February 8, 2022

with the S&P500 at 4,521.54

 

 

 

The  Seven  Indicators:

    Short  term  indicator                              

(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio

---   Bullish at 28.4% bullish,

       for the 4/27/22 four-week average 

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/aaii-sentiment-remains-bullish-but-my.html

 

    Medium  term  indicators 

(2) Election  Year  Cycle

 --- Neutral, 

until the end of 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones4j.html

  

(3) Seasonality  Cycle

--- Bearish, 

for six months, starting May 1, 2022

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_sp.html

 (4) Corporate  Insider  Trading

--- Moderately Bearish, 

for the past month

Neutral in the past two weeks, sand

Bearish in the two weeks before that

 

(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy

 --- Moderately Bearish,  

after many years 

of a huge expansion   

of Federal Reserve Credit, 

and the resulting high inflation, 

the uptrend has almost ended, 

so this indicator 

is Moderately Bearish, 

based on mild Fed actions 

to fight inflation so far.

    Long  term  indicators

(6) S&P500  Price to Sales Ratio

--- Bearish  at 2.64x 

on April 29, 2022

Low  0.80  March 2009

High  3.04  December 2021

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

(P/S Ratio updated after every trading day)

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

 --- Bearish at 2.4% 

Assuming that dividends equal 50% 

of the latest four quarters

of S&P500 "as reported" earnings

( $197.87 for the year 2021 )

 

 

For  the  Indicator  Total:

+3  to  +7         = Bullish

+1.5  to + 2.5   = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1          =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5     = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7           = Bearish

 

 

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish                      = +1 point

Moderately Bullish  = +0.5 points

Neutral                      = 0 points

Moderately Bearish  = -0.5 points

Bearish