AAII Sentiment remains Bullish (but my average of all seven market timing indicators is Moderately Bearish) -- 0% cash recommended for traders (same as last week)

 Data Source:

 https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

NOTE:

My seven STOCK  MARKET  TIMING  INDICATORS TURNED MODERATELY BEARISH  in my April 17, 2022  monthly update  and will be BEARISH on May 1, 2022, when the Seasonality Indicator reversed from Bullish to Bearish:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

All seven market timing indicators had turned Moderately Bearish in early February 2022, and then improved to Neutral in early March 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/02/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

An average of seven useful indicators works better than any one stock market timing indicator.  

 

This AAII Sentiment indicator had been bullish for 112weeks in a row. Indicating the stock market is oversold. But unlike normal times, there has not been a rebound while the Ukraine war continues. The last time this indicator was so bullish was from May through August 2020. This is the only short term market timing indicator I track, of the seven market timing indicators I follow.  

 

AAII Sentiment does NOT tell us if we are in a bull market or a bear market. It just tells traders if buying stocks today is a good idea for the next few weeks.  The weekly indicator can change a lot in a few weeks. It is a contrary opinion sentiment indicator, so it is bullish when AAII individual investors are bearish, and vice versa, recommending from 0% to 100% cash in a common stock portfolio. Based on market sentiment from an anonymous online poll of members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  The four-week moving average has much less volatility than weekly data, but active stock traders should prefer the weekly data.

 

Week Ending on April 27, 2022: 

= BULLISH

21.6% of AAII Investors were bullish 

(was 30.1% bullish = BULLISH last week)

   (21.6% was lowest since 21.2% on 3/4/2009, 

just before a new bull market began)

 

Four  Week  Moving  Average: 

= BULLISH

28.4% of AAII Investors were bullish

(was 36.5% bullish = BULLISH last week)

 

 

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 0%

(was 0% cash last week)

 

 

Data for the week ending 4/27/22: 

16.4% were Bullish (lowest in my records, going back tp 2005)
   (was 18.9% last week)

24.2% were Neutral 
    (was 37.3%)

59.4% were Bearish 

    (was 43.9%)

 

 

AAII  Indicator  Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )

  ( under 40% is Bullish )