Monthly AAII Portfolio Allocation remains Neutral -- Weekly AAII Stock Sentiment declined to Neutral

   (1) Monthly AAII Portfolio Allocation Survey: 

NEUTRAL  

AAII investors are Neutral, based on their own investments. 

Bullish > 55% stocks
Moderately Bullish 55% to 60% stocks
Neutral  60% to 65% stocks
Moderately Bearish 65% to 70% stocks
Bearish > 70% stocks

(2) Weekly AAII Stock Market Sentiment Survey: 

NEUTRAL

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 42.0% bears

55% and above = Bullish

50% to 55% = Moderately Bullish

40% to 50% = Neutral

30% to 40% = Moderately Bearish

Below 30% = Bearish

Prior weeks:

AAII Sentiment was Moderately Bullish with 52.3% bears

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 44.6% bears.

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 41.8% bears.

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 40.4% bears.

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 40.2% bears.

AAII Sentiment was Neutral with 40.2% bears.

(1) MONTHLY  PORTFOLIO  ALLOCATION  SURVEY

The actual portfolios of these AAII investors in December 2022 had 63.55% stocks and stock mutual funds, which I rate as Neutral. 

November 2022 had 62.35% = Neutral
October 2022 had 61.6% = Neutral
September 2022 was 63.4% = Neutral

The historical average is 61.5%. 

Based on the percentage of stocks claimed in their portfolios, AAII investors are nowhere near their bearish sentiment at market bottoms in the past -- with roughly 40% allocated to stocks at the 1990, 2002, and 2009 stock market lows.  Far below the current 62.35%.

(2) WEEKLY  AAII  INVESTOR  SENTIMENT  SURVEY

I switched to the monthly AAII Portfolio Allocation Survey, instead of the weekly AAII Stock Market Sentiment survey, as one of my Seven EL Stock Market Timing Indicators index.  I'm tracking weekly AAII Sentiment with a different interpretation of the data than in the past. I will be bullish only when I see an unusually large percentage of bearish AAII investors, as a contrary opinion. The buy signal will last for one-week, because weekly data can be very volatile. 

(2) AAII  data for the week ending 1/4/22: 

20.5% were Bullish  --  (under 20% is unusually low)
   (was 26.5% last week)

37.5% were Neutral
    (was 25.9% last week)

42.0% were Bearish  --  (over 55% is unusually high)

    (was 47.6% last week)

NOTE: SEVEN  STOCK  MARKET  TIMING  INDICATORS:

My average of seven market timing indicators, predicting stock prices 

over the next 3 to 6 months, is more useful than any single indicator.

BEARISH on November 19, 2022

.... ECONOMIC LOGIC: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -3 (range is from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

BEARISH on September 30, 2022

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 (range is from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

BEARISH on August 21, 2022

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 1/2 (range from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

BEARISH on July 15, 2022

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 (range from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

Sources of Data:

September AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Equity Exposure Modestly Declines | AAII

...... Economic Logic: AAII Sentiment -- another way to look at AAII data (el2017.blogspot.com)
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results