AAII Sentiment improves to Bullish (but my average of all seven market timing indicators disagree) -- 0% cash recommended for traders (3% last week)

 Data Source:

 https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

NOTE:

My seven STOCK  MARKET  TIMING  INDICATORS TURNED MODERATELY BEARISH  in my April 17, 2022  monthly update  I said they would be BEARISH on May 1, 2022, when the Seasonality Indicator reversed from Bullish to Bearish:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

All seven market timing indicators had turned Moderately Bearish in early February 2022, and ihad mproved to Neutral in early March 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/02/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

An average of seven useful indicators works better than any one stock market timing indicator.  

 

This AAII Sentiment indicator had been bullish for 11 weeks in a row. Indicating the stock market is oversold. But unlike normal times, there has not been a rebound while the Ukraine war continues. The last time this indicator was so bullish was from May through August 2020. This is the only short term market timing indicator I track, of the seven market timing indicators I follow.  

 

AAII Sentiment does NOT tell us if we are in a bull market or a bear market. It just tells traders if buying stocks today is a good idea for the next few weeks.  The weekly indicator can change a lot in a few weeks. It is a contrary opinion sentiment indicator, so it is bullish when AAII individual investors are bearish, and vice versa, recommending from 0% to 100% cash in a common stock portfolio. Based on market sentiment from an anonymous online poll of members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  The four-week moving average has much less volatility than weekly data, but active stock traders should prefer the weekly data.

 

Week Ending on April 20, 2022: 

= BULLISH

30.1% of AAII Investors were bullish 

(was 24.6% bullish = BULLISH last week)

   (24.6% was lowest since 21.2% on 3/4/2009, 

just before a new bull market began)

 

Four  Week  Moving  Average: 

= BULLISH

36.5% of AAII Investors were bullish

(was 41.0% bullish = MODERATELY BULLISH last week)

 

 

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 0%

(was 3% cash last week)

 

 

Data for the week ending 4/20/22: 

18.9% were Bullish (lowest in my records, going back tp 2005)
   (was 15.8% last week)

37.3% were Neutral 
    (was 35.7%)

43.9% were Bearish 

    (was 48.4%)

 

 

AAII  Indicator  Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )

  ( under 40% is Bullish )