Short term indicator AAII Sentiment remains Bullish (but my seven market timing indicator average remains Bearish) -- 0% cash recommended for traders

 Data Source:

 https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

NOTE:

My seven STOCK  MARKET  TIMING  INDICATORS were:

 

BEARISH on May 1, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/05/as-i-warned-on-april-17-economic-logic.html

 

MODERATELY  BEARISH on April 17, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

NEUTRAL on March 11, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html  

MODERATELY  BEARISH on February 8, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/02/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

My average of seven useful indicators works better than any one stock market timing indicator.  

 

This AAII Sentiment indicator has been bullish for 15 weeks in a row, indicating that the stock market is oversold. But unlike in past decades, there has not been a rebound. The last time this indicator was so bullish was from May through August 2020. This is the only short term market timing indicator I track, of the seven market timing indicators I follow. It replaced my prior short term indicator, the Put / Call Ratio, that I had followed from 1977 through 2005. It stopped working in 2005. AAII Sentiment seems to have stopped working in 2022.

 

AAII Sentiment does NOT tell us if we are in a bull market or a bear market. 

It tells traders if stocks are "overbought" or "oversold". It only tells traders if buying stocks today is a good idea for the next few weeks. The weekly indicator can change a lot in a few weeks. 

 

AAII Sentiment is a contrary opinion sentiment indicator, so it is bullish when AAII individual investors are bearish, and vice versa, recommending from 0% to 100% cash in a common stock portfolio. Based on market sentiment from an anonymous online poll of members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  The four-week moving average has much less volatility than weekly data, but active stock traders should prefer the weekly data.

 

Week Ending on May 18, 2022: 

= BULLISH

34.0% of AAII Investors were bullish 

(was 33.2% bullish = BULLISH last week) 

 

Four  Week  Moving  Average: 

= BULLISH

30.6% of AAII Investors were bullish

(was 29.7% bullish = BULLISH last week)

 

 

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 0%

(was 0% cash last week)

 

 

Data for the week ending 5/18/22: 

26.0% were Bullish
   (was 24.3% last week) (lowest in my records, going back tp 2005)

23.6% were Neutral 
    (was 26.6%)

50.4% were Bearish 

    (was 49.0%)

 

 

AAII  Indicator  Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 

  ( under 40% is Bullish