Friday, May 27, 2022

Short term indicator AAII Sentiment remains Bullish (but my seven market timing indicator average remains Bearish) -- 0% cash recommended for traders

 Data Source:
 
NOTE:
My seven STOCK  MARKET  TIMING  INDICATORS were:
 
BEARISH on May 1, 2022:
https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/05/as-i-warned-on-april-17-economic-logic.html
 
MODERATELY  BEARISH on April 17, 2022:
 
MODERATELY  BEARISH on February 8, 2022:
My average of seven useful indicators works better than any one stock market timing indicator.  
 
This AAII Sentiment indicator has been bullish for 16 weeks in a row, indicating that the stock market is oversold. But unlike in past decades, there has not been a rebound. The last time this indicator was so bullish was from May through August 2020. This is the only short term market timing indicator I track, of the seven market timing indicators I follow. It replaced my prior short term indicator, the Put / Call Ratio, that I had followed from 1977 through 2005. It stopped working in 2005. AAII Sentiment seems to have stopped working in 2022.
 
AAII Sentiment does NOT tell us if we are in a bull market or a bear market. 
It tells traders if stocks are "overbought" or "oversold". It only tells traders if buying stocks today is a good idea for the next few weeks. The weekly indicator can change a lot in a few weeks. 
 
AAII Sentiment is a contrary opinion sentiment indicator, so it is bullish when AAII individual investors are bearish, and vice versa, recommending from 0% to 100% cash in a common stock portfolio. Based on market sentiment from an anonymous online poll of members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  The four-week moving average has much less volatility than weekly data, but active stock traders should prefer the weekly data.
 
Week Ending on May 25, 2022: 
= BULLISH
27.0% of AAII Investors were bullish 
(was 34.9% bullish = BULLISH last week) 
 

Four  Week  Moving  Average: 
= BULLISH
32.0% of AAII Investors were bullish
(was 30.6% bullish = BULLISH last week)
 
 
Recommended Portfolio Cash
percentage for short term traders: 
 = 0%
(was 0% cash last week)
 
 
Data for the week ending 5/25/22: 
19.8% were Bullish   (lowest in my records, going back to 2005)
   (was 26.0% last week)
26.7% were Neutral 
    (was 23.6%)
53.5% were Bearish 
    (was 50.4%)
 
 
AAII  Indicator  Analysis:
    ( over 80% is Bearish )
( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )
( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 
  ( under 40% is Bullish

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