AAII Sentiment remains Bullish, but the seven indicator EL Market Timing Total remains Bearish

Data Source:

 https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

My seven STOCK  MARKET  TIMING  INDICATORS were:

BEARISH on July 15, 2022

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 (range from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

 

BEARISH on June 12, 2022

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/06/the-economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

 BEARISH on May 1, 2022

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/05/as-i-warned-on-april-17-economic-logic.html

 

MODERATELY  BEARISH on April 17, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

NEUTRAL on March 11, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html   

 

MODERATELY  BEARISH on February 8, 2022:

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/02/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

My average of seven useful indicators 

works better than any single indicator.

Indicator  Analysis:

This is an indicator of small investor market sentiment. 

When these less sophisticated investors get unusually bullish, it's time for traders to sell.  When very few are bullish, it's time for traders to buy. ... This is the only short term market timing indicator, of the seven market timing indicators I follow.

This short term AAII Sentiment indicator has been bullish for 24 weeks in a row, as interpreted based on past experience, indicating that the stock market is oversold. But unlike in past years, so far there was not much of a market rebound. The S&P500 is up only +2.1% from June 30, 2022 (3875.38) to July 22, 2022 (3961.63).  The last time this indicator was so bullish was from May 2020 through August 2020. 

With this indicator, you can look back after a year is over, and see that the lowest AAII bullish levels were good buying points for traders, and the highest AAII bullish levels were good selling points for traders.  

I have determined high and low percentages of bullish small AAII investors real time by historical precedent -- I've been tracking these data weekly since 2005. But the bullish percentage of investors in 2022 has reached LOWER troughs than in past years. The troughs of bullish AAII investors seem to be lower in 2022 than in the past 16 years. 

I'm looking for a replacement stock market sentiment 

short term indicator foe next year.

 

AAII Sentiment does NOT tell us if we are in a bull or bear market. 

It only tells us if stocks are "overbought" or "oversold".  

It only tells us if buying stocks today is a good idea for the next few weeks. AAII Sentiment is a contrary opinion sentiment indicator, so it is bullish when AAII individual investors are bearish, and vice versa, recommending from 0% to 100% cash in a common stock portfolio. Based on market sentiment from an anonymous online poll of members of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). The four-week moving average has much less volatility than weekly data, but active stock traders should prefer the weekly data.

 

Week Ending on July 20, 2022: 

= MODERATELY  BULLISH

41.2% of AAII Investors were bullish 

(was 36.6% bullish = BULLISH last week) 

 

Four  Week  Moving  Average: 

= BULLISH

34.4% of AAII Investors were bullish (unusually low)

(was 30.0% bullish = BULLISH last week)

 

 

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 0%

(was 0% cash last week)

 

 

Data for the week ending 7/20/22: 

29.6% were Bullish (under 20% is unusually low)
   (was 26.9% last week)

28.2% were Neutral
    (was 26.6%)

42.2% were Bearish (over 50% is unusually high)

    (was 48.5%)

 

 

AAII  Indicator  Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 

  ( under 40% is Bullish