The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators improved to Moderately Bearish at -2 (range is from -7 to +7)

      Economic  Logic  Stock  Market 

        Timing  Indicators

on January 6, 2023 with the S&P500 at 3895.08

Indicator  Total  -2  Moderately Bearish

 ( Range is -7 to +7 )

(Was -3   Bearish on November 9, 2022 with the S&P500 at 3748.57   The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -3 (range is from -7 to +7)

(was - 4   Bearish on September 30, 2022 with the S&P500 at 3,585.62   The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 (range is from -7 to +7)

(was - 4 1/2   Bearish on August 19, 2022 with the S&P500 at 4,228.48    Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 1/2 (range from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

(was -4  Bearish on July 17, 2022 with the S&P500 at 3,863.16

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish at -4 (range from -7 to +7) (el2017.blogspot.com)

(was -4  Bearish on June 10, 2022 with the S&P500 at 3,900.86

...... Economic Logic: The ECONOMIC LOGIC stock market timing indicators remain Bearish (el2017.blogspot.com)

(was -3  Bearish on April 29, 2022 with the S&P500 at 4131.9

https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/05/as-i-warned-on-april-17-economic-logic.html

 

(was -2 1/2 Moderately Bearish on April 15, 2022 with the S&P500 at 4.392.59

 https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/04/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

(was -1 Neutral on March 10, 2022 with the S&P500 at 4,259.49

 https://el2017.blogspot.com/2022/03/economic-logic-stock-market-timing.html

 

( Was  -2  Moderately Bearish on February 8, 2022 with the S&P500 at 4,521.54

...... Economic Logic: Economic Logic Stock Market Timing Indicators declined to Moderately Bearish, from Neutral last month (el2017.blogspot.com)

 

 

 

The  Seven  Indicators:

    Monthly indicator                             

(1) AAII  Portfolio Allocation  (new indicator)

---   Neutral at 63.55% bullish,

       for December 2022 

Monthly AAII Portfolio Allocation remains Neutral -- Weekly AAII Stock Sentiment declined to Neutral

    Medium  term  indicators 

(2) Election  Year  Cycle

 --- Bullish, 

until mid-2023

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones4j.html

(3) Seasonality  Cycle

--- Bullish, 

for six months, from November 1, 2022 through April 30, 2023

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_sp.html

(4) Corporate  Insider  Trading

--- Bearish, 

for the past four weeks

Corporate Insider Trading remains Bearish, based on large trades made in the past month

 

     Long  term  indicators

(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy

 --- Bearish,  

After many years 

of a huge expansion   

of Federal Reserve Credit, 

and the resulting high inflation, 

the uptrend has ended, 

so this indicator is Bearish, 

based on actions

in the past month

(6) S&P500  Price to Sales Ratio

--- Bearish at 2.34x 

on January 6, 2023

Low  0.80  March 2009

High  3.04  December 2021

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

(P/S Ratio updated after every trading day)

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

 --- Bearish at 2.4% 

Assuming that dividends equal 50% 

of the latest four quarters

of S&P500 "as reported" earnings

( $187.08 for 4Q 2021 through 3Q 2022 )

 

 

For  the  Indicator  Total:

+3  to  +7         = Bullish

+1.5  to + 2.5   = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1          =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5     = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7           = Bearish

 

 

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish                      = +1 point

Moderately Bullish  = +0.5 points

Neutral                      = 0 points

Moderately Bearish  = -0.5 points

Bearish